WTC scenarios: Can Sri Lanka pip India in the race to the final?

India and Australia are set to face off in a marquee clash that could well turn out to be a precursor to the final of the second edition of the World Test Championship at the Oval this June. India and Australia head the points table and are well positioned to finish as the top two. South Africa play West Indies at home next month and will be closely following the proceedings of this series as their fate is closely intertwined with the scoreline of this series. Sri Lanka could emerge as the dark horses if they can spring a surprise in New Zealand. A look at what each team needs to progress.

Points table ahead of the Border-Gavaskar trophy

P.S. The scenarios mentioned in this copy is presuming no side will incur deduction in points by virtue of penalty overs for which sides lose one championship point for each over short and thereby altering the final percentage points tally.

Australia

Australia already have one foot in the final at the Oval having lost just one Test in the current iteration of the WTC. A draw in one of the four Tests in India is enough for Australia to seal their spot. The only mathematical possibility of them not making it is if they lose 4-0 to India and Sri Lanka win 2-0 in New Zealand.

India

India have their task cut out and they face a stiff challenge against Australia at home. If Sri Lanka win both their Tests in New Zealand, India would need to win at least three of the four Tests against Australia to stay clear of Sri Lanka's 61.11%. But if Sri Lanka manage to win only at most one of the two games, all India needs is a series win by any margin or a 2-2 draw. If the Border-Gavaskar trophy ends in a 1-1 stalemate, India will end with 55.09% and South Africa can pip them if they beat West Indies 2-0 (55.56%) and so does Sri Lanka if they win 2-0 (61.11%) or 1-0 (55.56%) in New Zealand.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka could turn out to be the dark horses if they can beat New Zealand 2-0. The defending WTC champions New Zealand have been in poor form and have not won a series since beating India in Southampton in 2021. If Sri Lanka does win 2-0, they get to 61.11% and the only way they could be eliminated is if India beat Australia by a 3-0 or 3-1 margin. However, if they manage to win only 1-0, they can finish only on 55.56% which can be surpassed by both Australia and India, as well as equalled by South Africa.

South Africa

South Africa were sitting comfortably at the top of the points table following their innings win at Lord's last July but poor batting performances in the next five Tests has put them in a spot. The best they can finish is 55.56% if they beat West Indies 2-0 at home, which would be lower than Australia who would finish on 59.65% even if they get whitewashed 0-4 by India. For South Africa to qualify, they would need India to lose to Australia or the series to end in a 1-1 draw and then Sri Lanka not to win more than one Test in New Zealand.

Does any other side stand any chance?

West Indies can get to 50% if they beat South Africa 2-0 away and would then want India and Sri Lanka to drop points against Australia and New Zealand and finish under 50%. England are already done with their fixtures and sit on 46.97% (they have lost 12 points by account of penalty overs) and have an outside chance if all the following results occur: Australia beat India 4-0 (India finish with 45.83%), West Indies beat South Africa 1-0 (West Indies finish 44.87% and South Africa 44.44%) and New Zealand beat Sri Lanka 2-0 (Sri Lanka finish 38.46%). Pakistan, Bangladesh and New Zealand all stand eliminated.