WTC Final scenarios: Australia, India and South Africa in three-way tussle

The second cycle of World Test Championship is in its final leg and India's 2-0 win in Bangladesh has caused some significant movement in the points table. A look at how the top contenders are placed for the final.

Points table after Mirpur Test

How has the Bangladesh-India series altered the standings?

India's 2-0 win in Bangladesh means they move up to the second place displacing South Africa, who lost to the table toppers Australia in Brisbane last week. India started the series with 52.08% but 24 points gained from the series has improved it to 58.93%. Meanwhile South Africa, who was on 60% went down to 54.55%.

Given how teams are placed now, it would take them to finish above 55% to have any chance of making it to the final and the three best teams in fray are Australia, India, and South Africa all of whom have games left to play.

Remaining series

*One Test already completed in the series

P.S. The scenarios mentioned in this copy is presume no side will incur deduction in points by virtue of penalty overs for which sides lose one championship point for each over short and thereby altering the final percentage points tally.

Have Australia qualified?

Not yet, at least theoretically but they are best placed to be the first side to book a ticket to the Oval in June for the final. If they win both of their remaining Tests against South Africa, they are through irrespective of the score line in India next year. But if they win and lose one each against the Proteas, they will need at least five points from India tour - a win, two draws or a tie would suffice for them, even if South Africa clean sweep West Indies 2-0 at home.

In the unlikely scenario of them losing the series to South Africa, Australia would need a win and a draw at least from the four Tests in India. Australia have been in rampaging form at home this leg of WTC, winning seven of the eight Tests and drawing the other, and will be looking to seal the finals berth before they set out on the plane to India.

What is India's best case scenario?

If Australia win the ongoing series against South Africa 3-0, all India need is a series win by any margin against Australia at home. But if South Africa sneak in with a win in Australia and then clean sweep West Indies 2-0, India would need to win either three Tests or win two and draw the remaining two Tests against Australia to ensure they finish above South Africa's 60%.

Where does it leave South Africa then?

South Africa were sitting pretty healthy after they won the first Test at Lord's in the English summer, but three tepid batting performances has meant they have slid out of the top two. For them not to depend on other sides, they would need to avoid a series defeat Down Under and then beat West Indies 2-0 as only one of India or Australia can at best pip them on points as they face each other. But if they lose the series Down Under, they will be at the mercy of the India-Australia series scoreline to progress.

What about the bottom six sides?

None of England, New Zealand, Pakistan, or West Indies can breach the 50% mark leaving them with only theoretical possibility of making it and would need South Africa and India to lose all their remaining Tests and end below 50%. Sri Lanka is the only side from the bottom six that can upset the apple cart if they win 2-0 in New Zealand and get up to 61.11%. Sri Lanka then need some help from Australia then to ensure both India and South Africa finish below them.